SSEN's Weather Watch for October 2021
A look back at September reveals a warmer than average month - with some locations reporting September was warmer than August - and wind speeds were below average, which continues the trend we’ve seen through the summer. However the last days of September were wet and windy in most places and this is how we expect October to start.
The weather maps have an autumnal look about them with the period 1-5 October expected to be very unsettled. We are likely to see weather warnings being issued across the country due to heavy rain and gales, leading to localised flooding and some disruption to travel.
The MetDesk map (above) shows the five day rainfall anomaly. This is how much rain we are expecting to see, relative to the average, expressed as a percentage. The blue and purple shadings highlight the above average values and it’s looking particularly wet, relative to average, in southeast England.
There will be a respite in the wettest areas from 8-12 October with some warmer and much drier weather likely to develop across southeast England, and day-time temperatures reaching a very pleasant 18 Celsius. The improvement is due to happen as an area of high pressure will impact this region for a few days. Further north and west - so that’s across Wales, northern England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland - the weather is predicted to stay overall more unsettled; breezy with occasional rain, but not cold.
The period 8-14 October is forecast to be quite warm across the west and north of Europe, from Spain to Finland, with the warmest area, relative to average, over Germany, Denmark and Sweden. During this time, it’s looking relatively cool in southeastern Europe, notably for Greece, Cyprus and Turkey, and this can be seen in the MetDesk map on our summary page.
Our longer term weather models suggest mostly unsettled with above average rainfall for the UK and Ireland for the second part of the month, so not really any signifcant weather pattern change likely at this stage.
In summary, October is expected to be a wet month with above average rainfall; the first week is particularly windy with the risk of 60-70 mph gusts, but a few dry and warm days will be mixed in.
We will be back in a few weeks’ time to check on the outlook for November.