SSEN's Weather Watch for November 2020
As usual we start with a quick look back at October and the data from the weather stations reveals it was a cloudy, wet month. Parts of south east England and eastern Scotland have had over twice their average rainfall, and it’ll be one of the top ten wettest Octobers on record for London. The Met Office bar chart (above) shows the rainfall anomalies for each month of the year so far.
The first week of November is looking very mixed – it started mild, wet and windy, but as a cold front moved south east it brought a big drop in temperature. As a result, many parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland will have a night or two of sub-zero temperatures, making for the first frost of the autumn season in some places.
With the colder air it should be fairly sunny at times which will be welcome after the dull October. Much of Scotland though will miss the night time frosts and over in Aberdeen the end of the week is looking exceptionally mild with temperatures of about 15 or 16 Celsius.
This sets the scene for the second week of November, which should be noticeably mild all across the UK and Ireland. Many places will have a dry week with light winds and both day and night temperatures will be above or well above average for the time of year. However, most places are likely to be on the cloudy side once again.
The MetDesk weather map - in our main page image - shows the average pattern for the week commencing 9 November. The high pressure is established over eastern Europe and the low pressure is centred near the southern tip of Greenland. In this weather regime, mild southerly breezes will arrive, but mainly places will be relatively dry. However, parts of southern Ireland will occasionally be wet and windy as spells of unsettled weather arrive from the nearby Atlantic. The warmest days will likely reach 16 Celsius in London and 19C in Lyon, France.
As we go through towards the second half of the month there should be a few subtle changes. Western areas, such as Ireland and Scotland, will tend to turn more unsettled, whereas central and eastern Europe remains calm and dry. There will likely be a tendency for colder weather with more night frost and fog later in the month.
So, all in all, a very mixed month to come in November, but with a notable mild and dry spell for most during the second and third weeks.
We’ll be back in early December to look at the prospects for the end of the year and check on the snow risks for Christmas and the New Year.
For more weather information you can follow our meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king.