SSEN's Weather Watch for October 2019

The weather statistics for September are in and they show that the temperatures were a fraction above average and it was notably wet but sunny in England and Wales; more than 120% of the long term climate average). The heavy rain at the end of the month has caused a rapid increase in soil moisture, but values in Northern Ireland and Scotland were closer to normal. 

The graph above shows the cumulative rainfall for Glasgow for the year so far (from 1 January to 30 September) – the black line shows the total rainfall, the blue line is last year, and the grey shading represents the range in the historical observations from 1967. We can see the year started drier than last year, but then from July it has been wetter than last year, with the year to date rainfall at about 1000mm. That's 200mm more than the same time in 2018. 

The weather patterns for most of October suggest many wet and windy spells, including the remnants of hurricane Lorenzo. The satellite imagery from EUMETSAT - on our main page - shows the cloud pattern associated with Lorenzo. The storm is expected to move northeastwards then impact Ireland with severe gales, storm surges and coastal flooding and damage in parts of the west. It should then steadily weaken as it drifts southeast across parts of Wales and South West England by the weekend of 5 October. 

As we head into the middle and end of the month, low pressure is expected to remain established to the south of Iceland while high pressure settles close to the Azores. This weather pattern will bring frequent wet and windy spells from the nearby Atlantic, perhaps most likely to western Scotland. A few brief quieter, colder interludes can be expected, coinciding with breaks or interruptions in the jet stream and on these nights we’re likely to have patchy frost and fog. However, as the low pressure and westerly winds dominate, the risk of localised flooding could be much higher than normal, with difficult travelling conditions likely in the heavy rain. 

The Met Office and Met Éireann are responsible for issuing warnings to the Emergency Services and the public, please see their websites for further information for your area of interest. 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings

 

https://www.met.ie/warnings

 

 

For more weather information you can follow our meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king.