SSEN's Weather Watch for November 2019
We’re well into the autumn season now and a quick look back at October reveals a slightly colder than average month was recorded across the UK.
There was a split regarding rainfall and sunshine levels though, with Scotland and Northern Ireland being relatively dry and sunny, whereas England and Wales were quite dull and wet. The main reason for this was the southerly displaced jet stream. Unsettled weather on the jet stream resulted in over 100mm of rain in parts of South Wales on 25 to 26 October. The Met Office map above shows the rainfall anomaly and the blue colours tell us eastern England was very wet for the time of year.
November is expected to start with a similar type of weather pattern. It is highly likely to be colder than average, especially during the period 6 to 19 November. Although we’re not expecting anything extreme, the coldest places - relative to average - will be Scotland and northern England. A few of the nights will have sub-zero temperatures giving a frost to some areas. Rainfall patterns could be fairly unusual, with the wettest places being along the North Sea coasts of Scotland and England, together with the English Channel shores. On the other hand, northwestern Scotland could be a region which is relatively dry in the first couple of weeks of the month.
The MetDesk map in the summary image shows the temperature departures from the 30 year climate average for the period 13 to 19 November. The blue colours illustrate colder than average and the oranges and reds highlight the warmer areas. There is a clear west-east split across Europe, with the coldest weather, relative to average, expected for parts of Scandinavia, Ireland, the UK and Spain. Some eastern European countries will be warm for the time of year.
Although the timing has very low confidence, it’s probable that during the last week of November, we’ll see more frequent Atlantic depressions coming over to impact Scotland and Ireland. This would result in milder but wetter and windier weather for these parts of northwestern Europe.
We’ll return in a few weeks to look at the expected weather patterns for December and the Christmas period.
For more weather information you can follow our meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king.