SSEN's Weather Watch for July 2019
A look back at June reveals a mostly cool, dull and wet month but the last couple of days saw hot air move north across Europe bringing record breaking temperatures to France, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. Parts of Greater London recorded 34 Celsius on 29 June, but the talking point amongst meteorologists was the heat across Europe – the European-average temperature for June 2019 was the highest on record for the month of June.
The map in the summary image shows how the temperature differed from the long term average for 25-29 June, with red being hotter than average and blue colder than average. Temperatures of 6-10°C above normal occurred over most of France and Germany, northern Spain, northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and the Czech Republic.
Currently on the weather map we have high pressure across Ireland but that is likely to drift further out into the Atlantic to become established over the Azores. From there, a ridge of high pressure will occasionally extend northeast towards Wales and England. At the same time, low pressure is most likely to be positioned between Scotland and Iceland.
Given this general weather pattern, our expectations for July (and possibly most of August) is for some wet and cool spells to impact northern parts of the UK, as the low pressure in the nearby Atlantic occasionally moves closer. Southern parts of the UK, as well as parts of Ireland, should generally have drier and sunnier weather. The risk of a significant heatwave is quite low, but a one or two day hot spell is possible in the southeast corner of England.
Coastal areas could see the best of the sunshine, influenced by the sea breeze – whereas inland areas could be cloudy most afternoons. However, in the sunshine, sun-sensitive skin could burn easily.
The temperatures will start low for the time of year, notably in Aberdeen - with top values of only 13C during the weekend 6-7 July. Further south, day time highs should be in the low 20s Celsius, making for some pleasant Summer weather without being too hot.
The graph - by Speedwell Weather - in the image above shows the forecast maximum temperatures for Glasgow. Around 20 degrees is likely most days in the period 10th to 17th July.
So all in all, weather from the nearby Atlantic will bring typical July weather, the best in the south. For the month as a whole, temperatures should be close to the long term average but parts of Scotland are likely to be wetter than normal.
We’ll be back in a few weeks to see if there are any signals for change in the pattern for August.
For more weather information you can follow our meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king.