SSEN's Weather Watch for November 2018
A good way to look back at the year so far is to study the chart (above) from the Met Office which shows how the monthly mean temperatures have deviated from average.
We can see February and March were much colder than average, then we went into a four month spell with above or well above average values. Since August, the UK temperatures have been almost bang on average levels and indications are that the last two months of the year will return to the above average trend.
This year’s temperatures have been noteworthy in other parts of Europe too, with both Germany and France recording the warmest January to October period on record.
Looking ahead to the remainder of November – there are some strong signals emerging for our weather patterns. A very large area of low pressure in the nearby Atlantic Ocean will be the driving force and bring mild southerly winds across most of Europe. The centre of the depression will be slow moving before gradually drifting nearer to Iceland by the end of the month.
The first two or three weeks of November look to be particularly mild, especially for central and eastern Europe, including Scandinavia, with both day and night time temperatures being above or well above average.
This chart on our main page shows a good example from one of the weather models we look at; it’s a map showing the forecast temperature departures from the long term climate values – so the orange and red colours predict where it is expected to be warmer than average, and the blue highlights colder than average. The prediction is valid for 10-14 November.
The western and southern areas of the UK will have the wettest weather and it will often be quite windy, although sunshine levels will be close to normal.
We’ll be back in a few week’s time to look at the prospects for December, but at the moment it’s looking like low pressure from the Atlantic will bring frequent spells of mild, wet and windy weather.
For more weather information you can follow our senior meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king.