SSEN's Weather Watch for September 2017
A quick look back at Summer 2017 reveals a rather wet season; for the UK it was the ninth wettest summer in a series from 1910.
June stood out as being very warm in most places, but the second part of July and most of August were notably on the cool side with sunshine levels a fraction below average.
We are currently at the peak part of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic basin. At the time of writing, there are three hurricanes on the scene and all eyes are on the extreme weather associated with category 5 Hurricane Irma in the Caribbean. As well as severe, damaging winds, the hurricane will produce considerable rainfall, storm surges, large breaking waves and rip currents.
The NASA satellite imagery (on the main site) shows the eye of Hurricane Irma, and the cloud in the SW Gulf of Mexico is Hurricane Katia. The map above - from the US Hurricane Centre in Miami - shows the current positions of the three hurricanes.
Meanwhile, back home, we’re expecting a spell of cool, unsettled weather for the time of year. Monday 11 to Thursday 14 September looks to be particularly windy and cool, with above average rainfall – notably in Cumbria and North Wales. The peak gusts are likely to be in the range 45-60mph, bringing an early taste of autumn.
There is a chance that the last 10 or so days of the month could be slightly better, with the high pressure near the Azores trying to edge up towards us. This brings the prospects of some fine weather at times, especially to the south of the UK.
However, confidence can’t be high because any further tropical storms or hurricanes which form between west Africa and the Caribbean Sea, could recurve northeast across the Atlantic Ocean as they weaken and merge with other areas of low pressure. This scenario would keep the unsettled weather going.
All in all, we can expect September to be colder than average, significantly wetter and windier than average (more likely in the first half of the month), with sunshine levels slightly below normal.
For more weather information you can follow our senior meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king