SSEN's Weather Watch for February 2017
A quick look back at January shows it was a colder than average month across most of Europe, but much of Scandinavia, Scotland and Ireland had temperatures near or above average. It was also a dry month with below average wind speeds across north west Europe.
The map in the smaller image on the main page gives an indication of the temperature anomalies for January, where orange/red is warmer than average and blue is colder.
For February, our analysis suggests a month of three parts – starting cold with snow flurries then a sudden spell of very early Spring mid month before an Atlantic weather pattern becomes established for the last 10 days or so.
For the weekend 11 and 12 February, cold easterly or north easterly winds will bring very cloudy skies to most of the UK and Ireland. The cloud will be thick enough to produce snow showers or snow flurries, most likely for central and eastern parts. Day time temperatures will struggle to reach two or three Celsius, but in the wind it will feel more like minus three. The best of the sunshine will be found across Scotland but overnight temperatures here will easily fall to minus three but as low as minus nine Celsius over the hills and mountains.
During the week 13 to 17 February a change in wind direction should mean improving weather. Many places will become milder (afternoon temperatures reaching 10 to 13 degrees) as winds settle to the south. The sunniest days are likely to be 13 and 14 February, making it feel really pleasant after a chilly start.
Another change to the weather pattern is expected for the last 10 days of the month as winds turn westerly and both day and night time temperatures recover, and this will be, by far, the mildest part of the month.
The map above shows the weather map predictions for 20 to 24 February with low pressure near Iceland, high pressure over Iberia, and milder Atlantic winds for Ireland and the UK.
During this set-up, the weather will be changeable with spells of rain and strong winds – the wettest weather will be in western Scotland, Cumbria and north Wales. The temperatures should be above average, and that goes for the majority of Europe too.
As the weather turns more unsettled, sunshine levels will be down, but under the high pressure over Spain it should be fantastically sunny!
For more weather information you can follow our senior meteorologist, Simon Cardy on twitter @weather_king